{
  "source": "NWS Summary of U.S. Natural Hazard Statistics 1997-2025 (via DataPressr us-natural-hazard-statistics) and NWS per-state heat summaries; CDC WONDER Multiple Cause of Death (final 1999-2024, provisional 2025)",
  "nws": {
    "first_year": 1997,
    "last_year": 2025,
    "years": 29,
    "all_hazards": 18867,
    "ranking_top8": [
      {
        "rank": 1,
        "id": "heat",
        "deaths": 5366
      },
      {
        "rank": 2,
        "id": "tornado",
        "deaths": 2167
      },
      {
        "rank": 3,
        "id": "flash-flood",
        "deaths": 2015
      },
      {
        "rank": 4,
        "id": "tropical-storm-hurricane",
        "deaths": 1505
      },
      {
        "rank": 5,
        "id": "rip-current",
        "deaths": 1438
      },
      {
        "rank": 6,
        "id": "lightning",
        "deaths": 893
      },
      {
        "rank": 7,
        "id": "cold",
        "deaths": 849
      },
      {
        "rank": 8,
        "id": "thunderstorm-wind",
        "deaths": 842
      }
    ],
    "heat": 5366,
    "cold": 849,
    "cold_rank": 7,
    "heat_share_pct": 28,
    "heat_vs_tornado": 2.5,
    "heat_vs_cold": 6.3,
    "tornado_plus_flash_flood": 4182,
    "heat_vs_tornado_plus_flash_flood": 1.3,
    "cold_winter_storm_ice": 1573,
    "heat_top_years": 19,
    "heat_top_year_list": [
      1998,
      1999,
      2000,
      2001,
      2002,
      2006,
      2007,
      2010,
      2012,
      2013,
      2016,
      2017,
      2018,
      2019,
      2020,
      2021,
      2022,
      2023,
      2024
    ],
    "heat_2025": 100,
    "flash_flood_2025": 209,
    "arizona": {
      "total": 1990,
      "heat_without_arizona": 3376,
      "share_1997_2018_pct": 3,
      "share_2019_2024_pct": 78,
      "y2005": 51,
      "y2019": {
        "arizona": 143,
        "all": 187
      },
      "y2020": {
        "arizona": 337,
        "all": 350,
        "outside": 13
      },
      "y2023": {
        "arizona": 448,
        "all": 555
      },
      "max_1997_2018_excl_2005": 9
    },
    "window_1999_2024": {
      "heat": 5012,
      "cold": 762,
      "heat_vs_cold": 6.6
    }
  },
  "cdc": {
    "first_year": 1999,
    "last_final_year": 2024,
    "years": 26,
    "heat": 23951,
    "cold": 45301,
    "cold_vs_heat": 1.9,
    "cold_ahead_years": 26,
    "closest_years": [
      {
        "year": 2006,
        "heat": 1006,
        "cold": 1058,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 95
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "heat": 2415,
        "cold": 2547,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 95
      }
    ],
    "cold_peak": {
      "year": 2022,
      "deaths": 3571
    },
    "heat_peak": {
      "year": 2023,
      "deaths": 2415
    },
    "heat_2015_2019": 4201,
    "heat_2020_2024": 9285,
    "heat_growth": 2.2,
    "cold_2015_2019": 9954,
    "cold_2020_2024": 13695,
    "cold_growth_pct": 38,
    "cold_vs_heat_2015_2019": 2.4,
    "cold_vs_heat_2020_2024": 1.5,
    "provisional_2025": {
      "heat": 1866,
      "cold": 2698,
      "vintage": "October 24, 2026 as of November 1, 2026"
    },
    "annual": [
      {
        "year": 1999,
        "heat": 1066,
        "cold": 1251,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 85
      },
      {
        "year": 2000,
        "heat": 494,
        "cold": 1349,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 37
      },
      {
        "year": 2001,
        "heat": 538,
        "cold": 1084,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 50
      },
      {
        "year": 2002,
        "heat": 625,
        "cold": 1129,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 55
      },
      {
        "year": 2003,
        "heat": 413,
        "cold": 1280,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 32
      },
      {
        "year": 2004,
        "heat": 309,
        "cold": 1262,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 24
      },
      {
        "year": 2005,
        "heat": 704,
        "cold": 1368,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 51
      },
      {
        "year": 2006,
        "heat": 1006,
        "cold": 1058,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 95
      },
      {
        "year": 2007,
        "heat": 546,
        "cold": 1394,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 39
      },
      {
        "year": 2008,
        "heat": 502,
        "cold": 1375,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 37
      },
      {
        "year": 2009,
        "heat": 555,
        "cold": 1370,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 41
      },
      {
        "year": 2010,
        "heat": 799,
        "cold": 1536,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 52
      },
      {
        "year": 2011,
        "heat": 1009,
        "cold": 1512,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 67
      },
      {
        "year": 2012,
        "heat": 837,
        "cold": 1172,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 71
      },
      {
        "year": 2013,
        "heat": 651,
        "cold": 1615,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 40
      },
      {
        "year": 2014,
        "heat": 411,
        "cold": 1897,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 22
      },
      {
        "year": 2015,
        "heat": 577,
        "cold": 1750,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 33
      },
      {
        "year": 2016,
        "heat": 821,
        "cold": 1712,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 48
      },
      {
        "year": 2017,
        "heat": 880,
        "cold": 1776,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 50
      },
      {
        "year": 2018,
        "heat": 1012,
        "cold": 2281,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 44
      },
      {
        "year": 2019,
        "heat": 911,
        "cold": 2435,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 37
      },
      {
        "year": 2020,
        "heat": 1156,
        "cold": 2154,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 54
      },
      {
        "year": 2021,
        "heat": 1601,
        "cold": 2748,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 58
      },
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "heat": 1719,
        "cold": 3571,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 48
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "heat": 2415,
        "cold": 2547,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 95
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "heat": 2394,
        "cold": 2675,
        "heat_pct_of_cold": 89
      }
    ]
  },
  "nws_vs_cdc_1999_2024": {
    "heat_nws_pct_of_cdc": 21,
    "cold_nws_pct_of_cdc": 1.7,
    "heat_cdc_vs_nws": 4.8,
    "cold_cdc_vs_nws": 59
  },
  "attributed": {
    "maricopa_2023_heat_deaths": {
      "value": 645,
      "source": "Maricopa County Department of Public Health, March 2024, as reported by KJZZ, https://www.kjzz.org/2024-03-13/content-1874049-maricopa-county-reported-645-heat-related-deaths-2023-700-increase-decade-ago"
    },
    "weinberger_2020": {
      "deaths_per_year": 5608,
      "counties": 297,
      "population_share_pct": 62,
      "period": "1997-2006",
      "source": "Weinberger et al., Environmental Epidemiology 2020, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32613153/"
    },
    "gasparrini_2015_usa": {
      "cities": 135,
      "period": "1985-2006",
      "cold_pct_of_deaths": 5.51,
      "heat_pct_of_deaths": 0.35,
      "source": "Gasparrini et al., Lancet 2015, Table 2, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4521077/"
    },
    "liu_2025_cold_rate_per_100k": {
      "from": 0.44,
      "to": 0.92,
      "period": "1999-2022",
      "source": "Liu et al., JAMA 2025, https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2828342"
    }
  },
  "cross_checks": {
    "liu_2025_cold_1999_2022": {
      "published": 40079,
      "this_snapshot": 40079
    },
    "howard_2024_heat_1999_2023": {
      "published": 21518,
      "this_snapshot": 21557,
      "note": "Howard et al. add P81 and may use an earlier file vintage"
    },
    "berko_2014_2006_2010": {
      "published_heat": 3332,
      "published_cold": 6660,
      "this_snapshot_heat": 3408,
      "this_snapshot_cold": 6733
    },
    "d77_d157_agree_2018_2020": true
  }
}