{
  "_note": "Transcribed by hand from the Global Carbon Budget 2026 report (ESSD preprint) and press release, 13 November 2026. These figures are NOT in any downloadable GCB data file: the National Fossil Carbon Emissions 2026 v0.1 workbook and the Zenodo national dataset (2026v11) both end in 2025; the global workbook has a 2026 row for the world only. Each value gives its locator. calculate.mjs checks the fields and copies them into statistics.json.",
  "report": {
    "title": "Global Carbon Budget 2026",
    "authors": "Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Andrew, R. M., et al.",
    "venue": "Earth System Science Data Discussions (preprint, under review)",
    "doi": "10.5194/essd-2026-895",
    "url": "https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-895/",
    "published": "2026-11-10",
    "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
    "pdf_sha256": "7c031e2616d5e9e0884c1364320cbaa7cb480a2bf15a07e0124b4f7dd9b9f76e"
  },
  "press_release": {
    "title": "Fossil CO2 emissions decrease in 2026",
    "url": "https://globalcarbonbudget.org/fossil-co2-emissions-decrease-in-2026/",
    "published": "2026-11-10"
  },
  "projection_year": 2026,
  "china": {
    "growth_pct": -0.9,
    "low_pct": -2.6,
    "high_pct": 0.8,
    "level_gtco2_approx": 12.3,
    "by_fuel_pct": {
      "coal": 0.3,
      "oil": -4.6,
      "gas": -0.9,
      "cement": -6.2
    },
    "locator": "Preprint lines 228 and 1047-1050 (section 3.1.4): 'For China, projected fossil emissions in 2026 are expected to have decreased by 0.9% (range -2.6% to 0.8%) compared with 2025 emissions ... around 3.4 GtC yr-1 (12.3 GtCO2 yr-1). Our projected changes by fuel for China are 0.3% for coal, -4.6% for oil, -0.9% for natural gas, and -6.2% for cement.' Press release: 'China's emissions in 2026 are projected to decrease by 0.9%, following two years of low emissions growth.'"
  },
  "global": {
    "growth_pct": -0.4,
    "low_pct": -1.5,
    "high_pct": 0.6,
    "level_gtco2_approx": 38.2,
    "locator": "Preprint lines 219-221 and 1040-1041: 'global fossil CO2 emissions (including cement carbonation, -0.15 GtC) declined by 0.4% in 2026 (-1.5% to 0.6%) to 10.4 GtC (38.2 GtCO2)'. Includes the cement carbonation sink, unlike the national dataset's world total; excluding it, the global workbook's 2026 row (10.5912 GtC) is 0.5% below 2025. Preprint line 224: 'Consolidated data confirm a growth of 1.2% in 2025 relative to 2024' (leap-adjusted; matches 2026v11's world total, +1.2% per day).",
    "growth_2025_pct": 1.2
  },
  "carbon_monitor_china": {
    "growth_pct": -2.3,
    "low_pct": -4.4,
    "high_pct": -0.2,
    "locator": "Preprint lines 1070-1071: 'Carbon Monitor projects the 2026 emissions to decline by 2.3% (-4.4% to -0.2%) for China'. A separate near-real-time estimate, reported in the same paper."
  },
  "global_oil_quote": {
    "text": "likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict",
    "locator": "Press release, on the projected 1.9% fall in global oil emissions (not specific to China)."
  },
  "peters_quote": {
    "text": "A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change.",
    "locator": "Press release, Glen Peters, Research Professor, CICERO. The quote continues: '... but the changes are not sufficient to lock in a peak in global emissions' (it is about global emissions)."
  },
  "basis_quote": {
    "text": "These preliminary estimates are based on available data for 2026.",
    "locator": "Preprint line 223. Method for China, line 473: growth rates from the National Bureau of Statistics' Statistical Communique, with cement clinker trade data and estimated changes in lime production."
  },
  "range_note": "Preprint lines 1045-1046: 'The uncertainty presented for projections relates only to the estimated growth rate, and excludes the uncertainty of the baseline (i.e., 2025) level.'",
  "peers": {
    "usa_pct": -1.3,
    "eu27_pct": -1.5,
    "japan_pct": -1.0,
    "india_pct": 4.4,
    "locator": "Preprint lines 226-230: '-0.9% (-2.6% to +0.8%) for China, -1.3% (-3.4% to +0.8%) for the United States, -1.5% (-4.0% to +0.9%) for the European Union, and -1.0% (-2.5% to +0.6%) for Japan ... India ... increase by 4.4% (1.7% to 7.1%)'. Press release gives the same central values."
  },
  "renewables_quote": {
    "text": "electricity generation from renewables continues to grow strongly",
    "locator": "Press release, China bullet: 'In addition to a strong decrease in oil emissions, coal emissions rose slightly (0.3%) and electricity generation from renewables continues to grow strongly.'"
  }
}