# Source snapshot — china-co2-peak story

Retrieved by [`fetch.mjs`](fetch.mjs) (from the download folder: `node china-co2-peak-src/fetch.mjs`; Node 18+, no dependencies). The script asks Zenodo for the latest version of the Global Carbon Project's national fossil CO2 dataset, so a re-run after a new edition picks it up. It saves the latest edition's emissions file, its field metadata and the publisher's method document unchanged; keeps the China and Global rows of the latest sources file and of the final version of each earlier annual edition (2021 on) as two small extracts; and writes [`source-manifest.json`](source-manifest.json) and the table below. [`calculate.mjs`](calculate.mjs) checks every file against the manifest before it writes `statistics.json` and the CSVs.

## Global Carbon Project fossil CO2 emissions dataset

- **Publisher:** Global Carbon Project (GCP); dataset authors Robbie M. Andrew and Glen P. Peters, CICERO Center for International Climate Research. Zenodo concept record (all versions): <https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5569234>.
- **Title on Zenodo:** "The Global Carbon Project's fossil CO2 emissions dataset". The metadata file names the source as "Global Carbon Budget 2026" for every field.
- **Licence:** Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). Verified on 8 November 2026 in three places: the Zenodo record metadata (`license: cc-by-4.0`, checked by `fetch.mjs` on every run), the `licence` entry of each field in `GCB2026v11_MtCO2_flat_metadata.json` ("Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International"), and the Zenodo record page. The licence covers the data file itself, not only a report.
- **Citation requested in the metadata file:** Friedlingstein et al. 2020 (doi:10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020). We cite the dataset as: Andrew, R. M. and Peters, G. P. (2026), *The Global Carbon Project's fossil CO2 emissions dataset*, version 2026v11, Zenodo, doi:10.5281/zenodo.23667912.
- **What the latest year is:** the method document (`GCP-fossilCO2-2026v11.pdf`, §2.2.32 and Figure 23) says each edition ends in the year before its version number and that the final years (the last year for Annex I countries, the last two for others, including China) are extrapolated, largely with energy growth rates from the Energy Institute's Statistical Review. The sources extract confirms that China's 2024 and 2025 values cite the Energy Institute.

<!-- BEGIN fetch.mjs table -->
Latest edition: **2026v11**, Zenodo record 23667912 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.23667912), published 2026-10-26, licence cc-by-4.0. Retrieved 2026-11-13.

| File in this folder | Kind | Upstream file | Bytes | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `GCB2026v11_MtCO2_flat.csv` | raw, unchanged | <https://zenodo.org/api/records/23667912/files/GCB2026v11_MtCO2_flat.csv/content> | 3,238,479 | `51981027f2de992ed824c21f40a93784dc618db9348755d0c6e67441c921d30a` |
| `GCB2026v11_MtCO2_flat_metadata.json` | raw, unchanged | <https://zenodo.org/api/records/23667912/files/GCB2026v11_MtCO2_flat_metadata.json/content> | 3,784 | `52551e94ee91b42048929affe56d4abf204ccfd091fac1e33cafbd7d8a2b78ca` |
| `GCP-fossilCO2-2026v11.pdf` | raw, unchanged | <https://zenodo.org/api/records/23667912/files/GCP%20fossilCO2%202026v11.pdf/content> | 947,645 | `5537b7fc7d062eef11564195118d7d72f77b53146d2297caf2d01a450f57a179` |
| `gcb-latest-sources-china-global.csv` | extract (China and Global rows) | <https://zenodo.org/api/records/23667912/files/GCB2026v11_sources_flat.csv/content> | 6,396 | `7e69a377eccd13ace63f6ceb4c81a730d01b7bf61d7654f42faaca99669c0fe0` |
| `gcb-earlier-editions-china-global.csv` | extract (China and Global rows) | final version of each earlier annual edition (see earlier_editions) | 9,201 | `7b70a972275bb08305a7c5ce21fd944d8410c3b3cf98f9de2f8b507186a7085a` |

Raw files behind the extracts (not archived here; re-download from the URL and compare):

| Upstream file | Zenodo record | Published | Bytes | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `GCB2026v11_sources_flat.csv` | 23667912 | 2026-10-26 | 8,646,325 | `48b5f285a3b39c750bb3ddcc3065dfa8c01449fcab9b684bbe33d14568e4ebad` |
| `GCB2021v34_MtCO2_flat.csv` | 5569235 | 2021-10-14 | 2,937,345 | `e058d008ea4b1a196dfc7d3f2836ae4bff172d1aa49a7ece3c82f14a24088503` |
| `GCB2022v27_MtCO2_flat.csv` | 7215364 | 2022-10-17 | 2,957,261 | `42658082b257b52d7d5d62b38ee28cbc8035e6b8fcce09153e27510a14892065` |
| `GCB2023v43_MtCO2_flat.csv` | 10562476 | 2024-01-24 | 3,124,866 | `5bd1bdab642221609a954024947656035cbda8ee99a08f278fc1c031e85d0490` |
| `GCB2024v18_MtCO2_flat.csv` | 14106218 | 2024-11-13 | 3,128,569 | `fdd271c93e6fa40b84571645acfaee06299012f1ab6c044ee130180b89bc3463` |
| `GCB2025v15_MtCO2_flat.csv` | 17417124 | 2025-10-22 | 3,147,221 | `20650c19b394d91b6b31cddff2fbc9508bcdbbed7c3f93660336f2f655f367ff` |
<!-- END fetch.mjs table -->

## Derived files (written by `calculate.mjs`)

| File | Contents |
|---|---|
| `china-vs-rest.csv` | Year, China total, global total, rest of world (global minus China, including international shipping and aviation), China's share, annual changes (calendar and leap-day adjusted) |
| `china-by-fuel.csv` | Year, China's emissions from coal, oil, gas, cement, flaring and other carbonates |
| `per-capita.csv` | Year, tonnes of CO2 per person for China, the USA, India, the EU27 (computed) and the world |
| `revisions.csv` | For each selected earlier edition (final version of each annual edition): its final year, China's value and growth in that edition, and the same year in the latest edition |
| `statistics.json` | Every number quoted in the post |
| `../README.md` | The post, rendered by `render-readme.mjs` from `README.template.md` and `statistics.json` |

All are regenerated byte-identically from the files above.

## Global Carbon Budget 2026: the 2026 projection and the projection track record (transcribed)

The Global Carbon Budget 2026 was released on **10 November 2026**. Its projections for 2026 are **not in any downloadable GCB data file**, so the post cites them from the report and says so. Checked on 13 November 2026:

- **National data on Zenodo** (the dataset above): still version 2026v11 (26 October 2026), data to 2025; `npm run update` on 13 November found no newer version, and every file hash is unchanged.
- **GCB Data Hub, "The Latest GCB Data (2026)"** (<https://globalcarbonbudget.org/data-hub/the-latest-gcb-data-2026/>): `National_Fossil_Carbon_Emissions_2026_v0.1.xlsx` (755,277 bytes, SHA-256 `670cb7564e395dd87070cda01a6a3642e3f0adf222bed98b1978a50a4741bc79`; the GCB 2026 page labels the link "v1.0") ends in 2025, with China (mainland) at 3,389.05 MtC = 12,417 MtCO2, matching 2026v11. `Global_Carbon_Budget_2026_v0.1.xlsx` (557,219 bytes, SHA-256 `b46051d3f255eb39f74c60f3c1a20450d36795a34865bb2dfb90949c0bf3e4a2`) has a 2026 row for the **world only** (fossil emissions excluding carbonation 10.5912 GtC; cement carbonation sink 0.1545 GtC). Neither file has a national 2026 projection. Not archived here.
- **The report**: Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Andrew, R. M., et al., "Global Carbon Budget 2026", *Earth System Science Data Discussions* (preprint, under review), doi:[10.5194/essd-2026-895](https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-895), discussion started 10 November 2026, CC BY 4.0. PDF SHA-256 `7c031e2616d5e9e0884c1364320cbaa7cb480a2bf15a07e0124b4f7dd9b9f76e` (3,648,031 bytes). Supplement `essd-2026-895-supplement-version1.pdf` SHA-256 `beb7d846ca90fc4a49f9b6a3e9e754d979e54051761272c65eaecb512c0f1f34` (4,723,352 bytes). Not archived here (re-download and compare).
- **Press release**: "Fossil CO2 emissions decrease in 2026", Global Carbon Budget, 10 November 2026, <https://globalcarbonbudget.org/fossil-co2-emissions-decrease-in-2026/>.

Transcribed by hand into two files, each value with its locator:

| File | Contents | From |
|---|---|---|
| [`gcb2026-report-figures.json`](gcb2026-report-figures.json) | China 2026: −0.9% (range −2.6% to +0.8%), about 12.3 GtCO2; by fuel coal +0.3%, oil −4.6%, gas −0.9%, cement −6.2%. World 2026: −0.4% (−1.5% to +0.6%), 38.2 GtCO2, including the cement carbonation sink. Carbon Monitor's China 2026 estimate: −2.3% (−4.4% to −0.2%). Quotes from the press release (Glen Peters; global oil) and the report (basis of the projection; the range covers growth only) | Preprint lines 219–232, 470–474, 1040–1050, 1069–1071; press release |
| [`gcb-china-projection-track-record.csv`](gcb-china-projection-track-record.csv) | For each year 2015–2025: GCB's projection of China's growth published that November (with its range where given) and the first estimate from actual data, published a year later. Leap-year adjusted | Supplement Table S6 (pages 53–55), China columns |

The global −0.4% and 38.2 GtCO2 include the cement carbonation sink. The national dataset's world total does not, and on that basis the workbook's 2026 row is 0.5% below 2025. The post quotes −0.4%, attributed. `calculate.mjs` checks that each projection lies inside its range, that the projection year follows the data's last year, and that applying −0.9% to this dataset's 2025 value gives the report's 12.3 GtCO2 (it gives 12,306 Mt).

## Context documents cited, not snapshotted

- Friedlingstein, P. et al. (2026), "Global Carbon Budget 2025", *Earth System Science Data* 18, 3211–3288, <https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/18/3211/2026/> (CC BY 4.0): "All annual growth rates presented are adjusted for the leap year" (the convention this post follows). Its 2025 projection for China (+0.4%, −0.1% to 0.9%) is the 2025 row of the track record.
- UNFCCC, COP31 page, <https://unfccc.int/cop31> (Antalya, Türkiye, 9–20 November 2026).