{
  "name": "eight-centuries-interest-rates",
  "title": "Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates",
  "description": "Annual global real interest rates from 1311 to 2018, reconstructed from archival and primary sources by Paul Schmelzing (Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 845, 2020). Covers 78% of advanced economy GDP and traces a long-run secular decline in real rates across successive monetary and fiscal regimes. Includes GDP-weighted headline global rates, safe-asset-provider rates, and country-level series for Italy, UK, Netherlands, Germany, France, United States, Spain, and Japan.",
  "homepage": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018",
  "version": "2020",
  "status": "structured",
  "licenses": [
    {
      "name": "OGL-UK-3.0",
      "path": "https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/",
      "title": "Open Government Licence v3.0"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "Schmelzing (2020)",
      "path": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018",
      "title": "Paul Schmelzing, 'Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the Suprasecular Decline, 1311–2018', Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 845 (2020)"
    }
  ],
  "resources": [
    {
      "name": "headline-rates",
      "path": "data/headline-rates.csv",
      "format": "csv",
      "mediatype": "text/csv",
      "description": "Annual global real interest rates, 1311–2018. Includes GDP-weighted global sovereign rates and safe-asset-provider rates, in both raw annual form and 7-year centred moving average. All rates are expressed in percent (%). Real rates are ex-post (realised inflation basis).",
      "schema": {
        "fields": [
          {
            "name": "year",
            "type": "integer",
            "description": "Calendar year"
          },
          {
            "name": "global_nominal_7y",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Global sovereign nominal rate, 7-year centred average (%)"
          },
          {
            "name": "global_inflation_7y",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Global inflation, 7-year centred average (%)"
          },
          {
            "name": "global_real_7y",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Global real interest rate, 7-year centred average (%). Primary long-run trend series."
          },
          {
            "name": "safe_nominal_7y",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Safe-asset-provider sovereign nominal rate, 7-year centred average (%)"
          },
          {
            "name": "safe_inflation_7y",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Safe-asset-provider inflation, 7-year centred average (%)"
          },
          {
            "name": "safe_real_7y",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Safe-asset-provider real rate, 7-year centred average (%)"
          },
          {
            "name": "global_nominal",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Global sovereign nominal rate, annual (%)"
          },
          {
            "name": "global_inflation",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Global inflation, annual (%)"
          },
          {
            "name": "global_real",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Global real interest rate, annual (%). Ex-post real rate on a GDP-weighted basis."
          },
          {
            "name": "safe_nominal",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Safe-asset-provider sovereign nominal rate, annual (%)"
          },
          {
            "name": "safe_inflation",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Safe-asset-provider inflation, annual (%)"
          },
          {
            "name": "safe_real",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Safe-asset-provider real rate, annual (%)"
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "country-rates",
      "path": "data/country-rates.csv",
      "format": "csv",
      "mediatype": "text/csv",
      "description": "Country-level real interest rates (not averaged), 1314–2018. Long format: one row per country per year. Countries: Italy, UK, Netherlands, Germany, France, United States, Spain, Japan. Rates in percent (%).",
      "schema": {
        "fields": [
          {
            "name": "year",
            "type": "integer",
            "description": "Calendar year"
          },
          {
            "name": "country",
            "type": "string",
            "description": "Country name"
          },
          {
            "name": "real_rate",
            "type": "number",
            "description": "Real interest rate, annual (%)"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  ],
  "views": [
    {
      "name": "global-real-rate-trend",
      "title": "Global Real Interest Rate, 1317–2018 (7-year average)",
      "resources": ["headline-rates"],
      "specType": "vega-lite",
      "spec": {
        "$schema": "https://vega.github.io/schema/vega-lite/v5.json",
        "transform": [
          {"filter": "datum.global_real_7y !== null && datum.global_real_7y !== ''"}
        ],
        "mark": {"type": "line", "color": "#2c5f8a"},
        "encoding": {
          "x": {
            "field": "year",
            "type": "quantitative",
            "title": "Year",
            "axis": {"format": "d"}
          },
          "y": {
            "field": "global_real_7y",
            "type": "quantitative",
            "title": "Real Rate (%)",
            "scale": {"zero": false}
          },
          "tooltip": [
            {"field": "year", "type": "quantitative", "title": "Year"},
            {"field": "global_real_7y", "type": "quantitative", "title": "Global Real Rate (7yr avg, %)", "format": ".2f"}
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "country-real-rates",
      "title": "Country-Level Real Interest Rates, 1314–2018",
      "resources": ["country-rates"],
      "specType": "vega-lite",
      "spec": {
        "$schema": "https://vega.github.io/schema/vega-lite/v5.json",
        "mark": {"type": "line", "opacity": 0.7},
        "encoding": {
          "x": {
            "field": "year",
            "type": "quantitative",
            "title": "Year",
            "axis": {"format": "d"}
          },
          "y": {
            "field": "real_rate",
            "type": "quantitative",
            "title": "Real Rate (%)",
            "scale": {"zero": false}
          },
          "color": {
            "field": "country",
            "type": "nominal",
            "title": "Country"
          },
          "tooltip": [
            {"field": "year", "type": "quantitative", "title": "Year"},
            {"field": "country", "type": "nominal", "title": "Country"},
            {"field": "real_rate", "type": "quantitative", "title": "Real Rate (%)", "format": ".2f"}
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  ]
}